Don’t break out the ticker tape just yet

There are a lot of generals who will tell us that victory in Iraq is now all but ordained, but they are far too emotionally invested to be taken at face value.  I admit, it is sometimes challenging to come up with an answer for the massive reduction in violence and apparent cooperation of the U.S. and Iraqi militaries in the past couple years.  However, no matter how wonderful the headlines and how flowery the generals’ speeches, there’s always that suspicion in the back of my mind: “It just doesn’t work that way.  Things don’t just magically get better in a year or two.  History tells us otherwise.”  Well, Thomas Ricks has an op-ed in today’s WaPo that confirms my suspicion: The reduction in violence is a veneer.  So why believe Ricks any more than the war’s cheerleaders?   Because Ricks’ editorial is written in a sober, objective tone whereas almost all of the “Iraq is saved if we just stay longer” op-eds are thinly veiled emotional appeals.

Ricks draws upon several years of his own research which included interviews with top commanders in Iraq.  Gen. Odierno (Commander, MNF-I) told Ricks that the Iraqi military had absolved itself of the Saddam-era mentality, but one of his subordinates closer to the facts told a different tale:

“When you got to know them and they’d be honest with you, every single one of them thought that the whole notion of democracy and representative government in Iraq was absolutely ludicrous,” said Maj. Chad Quayle, who advised an Iraqi battalion in south Baghdad during the surge.

As Ricks shows us, many years of Civil War-level reconstruction would be necessary just to repair the damage America wrought in Iraq, much less improve the quality of life above its prewar baseline.  Elections don’t put food on the table.  What’s more, just because violence is down dramatically does not mean that Iraq is at peace.  The usual assertions about us having saved Iraq are still childishly simplistic.

Well, here’s Kelly’s full statement

Tom Barnett just posted it on his blog, apparently ignoring the fallacies therein to champion the evolution of the Marine Corps toward a “noble” SysAdmin force.

The General does indeed use the language of decisive victory, speaking as if our mission from the outset was to create, then defeat, a powerful Anbar insurgency.  He also speaks as though the Marine Corps had been happily using counterinsurgency tactics like those in FM 3-24 all along instead of having been dragged to them kicking and screaming in late 2006 by the political tension applied by the “chattering class,” who by then comprised the majority of American citizens (who, apparently, don’t “serve the colors”).  I wonder what his “we knew it all along” attitude bodes for the long-term institutionalization of CI doctrine.  Lots of lessons to forget between now and our next unconstitutional war…

TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY CEREMONY MAJOR GENERAL JOHN F KELLY USMC COMMANDING GENERAL I MARINE EXPEDITIONARY FORCE (FORWARD) MULTI-NATIONAL FORCE-WEST AL ASAD, IRAQ 9 FEBRUARY 2009

It might surprise some here today of what a Marine is proudest of in the nearly three years he’s spent on the ground in Iraq since March 2003. It is not the triumphs of the invasion and the rush to Baghdad, Tikrit and Bayji that I lived, while the rest of the world held their breath and watched as we defined military power and prowess. It isn’t the fights we had over the summer of 2003 against an emerging insurgency in the Northern Babil Province, or the two battles of Fallujah in April and November of 2004. Or clearing Ramadi, or holding Karma, or cleaning out Al Qaim over the years.

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Korean Problems and Chinese Solutions

“It is early 2009 and you are an advisor to President Obama.  Kim Jong Il, leader of North Korea, has died.  North Korea has erupted into civil war as Kim Jong Il’s subordinate leaders have started battling each other to determine who will take power.  The status of North Korea’s nuclear facilities is currently unknown.  Thousands of North Korean refugees have already flooded across the borders into South Korea and China, and it appears that many more will do so as the fighting continues.  The South Korean and Chinese economies are already feeling the strain from this influx of refugees.  What do you advise President Obama to do, if anything?”

Now that you’re in the gravity of my neutron star-like opening hook, I’ll tell you where this is going:  I had to answer the above question (well, almost-the above is a paraphrase) for the Final Essay in one of my classes.  The grammar’s rough because I had less than two hours to craft it from scratch, but conceptually everything just seemed to click.  I was really on that day.  The version you read here is unedited except that the original had indented paragraphs. The WordPress blog program will only format new paragraphs with a flush margin after a skipped line.

[NOTE: Reproduction is not permitted without my express consent.  I do not approve any use of the text or ideas herein for academic plagiarism or similar activities.]

“The fall of North Korea presents numerous problems.  Their civil war may lead to regional instability if left unchecked.  North Korea possesses a considerable amount of nuclear material that could be used for fission/dirty bombs in the civil war, against one of North Korea (NK)’s neighbors, or sold to or stolen by terrorists that could use it against the West and the U.S.  The spread of the civil war and current inflow of refugees to South Korea and China economically damages both countries, on whom the U.S. economy as well as the rest of the modernized world are reliant. Clearly action must be taken.

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I MEF Commander Speaks; My Response Solicited

MILITARY: Departing Marine general cites Anbar improvement
North County Times
By MARK WALKER – Staff Writer | Monday, February 9, 2009

And given. North County Times is in Escondido, California-Camp Pendleton territory. I’m fairly content with my representation in this article. I made points that the author left out, but he had 5,000 words of information to stuff into a 500-word article and had to make some cuts. I understand that.

Nor would I expect the author to give me space equal to the general in making my point. In the eyes of the media, a major general has more authority to speak than any former sergeant, and for good reason. If we (humans) couldn’t establish and maintain some hierarchy of credibility, we’d be forever lost in a morass of uninformed arguments and would be unable to make important decisions.

However, if my quote doesn’t seem to directly address General Kelly’s statement, it’s because the author didn’t print the part that I was refuting. When he called me last night he read aloud the general’s entire statement-only a few highlights of which made it into the article. Gen. Kelly actually used the word “victory” (at least that’s what I heard over the phone while walking down a busy hallway) elsewhere. He also charged that “we [I MEF] walked the most dangerous streets in the world hunting the most murderous men on earth, and they [the war's detractors] slept safely at home in their beds.”

What some of us understand from the safety of our beds is that General Kelly’s is a circular argument: To describe the recent calming in Anbar as a “victory” is to say that the reason we invaded Iraq is to reduce the violence we caused in Iraq. I wasn’t going to let the commander of First Marine Expeditionary Force get by with that one.

Any calming or, for that matter, rebuilding in Iraq in absence of concrete strategic goals (“freedom” and “democracy” don’t make that cut) is merely a half-assed cleaning up of the mess we created; Hiding behind some medieval code of honor won’t change that. America’s way forward is to cope with reality and develop a comprehensive grand strategy that includes holding our integrity and learning from our failures.

[NOTE: This is not the first time Maj. Gen. Kelly has used the language of decisive victory since the surge began. He must not have received his commander's memo.]

Politics and Petraeus

A Military Tactician’s Political Strategy
In Defending the Troop Increase, Commander Paved Way for a ‘Long War’

By Thomas E. Ricks
Special to The Washington Post
Monday, February 9, 2009; Page A01

“For Petraeus and Odierno, his second in command, one key to buying time in 2007 was to scale back the Bush administration’s ambitions of turning Iraq into a beacon of democracy for the Middle East…’We’re not after the holy grail in Iraq; we’re not after Jeffersonian democracy,’ Petraeus later told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. ‘We’re after conditions that would allow our soldiers to disengage.’”

Interesting WaPo article that goes behind the scenes of Petraeus’ sale of the surge to a hostile Congress. The author doesn’t say how he got his information but he seems to draw from direct interviews with Petraeus. I posted this because the American public seems to be ignorant of the fact that this kind of machination happens in our military-both internally and in their dealings with political entities.

Bottom line: The guy wasn’t just reporting what he saw in Iraq. His testimony was calculated to keep us there.

You’ll need to establish a free account with the Washington Post to view the original article – If you’re so far behind the curve that you haven’t done so already.

My Dean and I are on the same page

The Dean of my school (General Studies) at Columbia University recently confirmed much of my views on Gaza. I think this is pretty cool-I didn’t know he was giving an interview until I happened across a link on the Columbia website. And no, I’ve never spoken with him or read any of his material on Palestine.

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Modern warfare evolves as Israel takes the short view

A NYT piece about the conflict in Gaza shows how Israel’s insistence on retaliating civilian casualties places them ever further behind the curve:

A Gaza War Full of Traps and Trickery
By STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: January 10, 2009

Tom Barnett takes a realist perspective and asserts that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is simply doing what it must in Gaza. He seems to view the civilian casualties as an either-or: They will occur either in Israel or Gaza, and it’s up to the IDF to decide which.

It’s true that the ongoing military campaign in Gaza may cause Israel’s civilian casualties to subside (although not disappear altogether), but only in the short term. Israel’s myopic use of force in Palestine has plenty of precedent, but I’m a bit perplexed that Barnett has forfeited his usually long-term outlook to support the Gaza campaign. Contrary to his assertion, the ongoing war in Gaza places Israeli citizens in continued danger.
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Why the “antiwar movement” is a force to be ignored

The following is excerpted from a Columbia Spectator op-ed, which is about the highest-tier publication anyone from the so-called “antiwar left” gets published in (minus HuffingtonPost, perhaps).  The lack of critical thinking put forth in this op-ed illustrates why the antiwar left may be forever doomed to frustration.

My first observation is that the author mistakenly uses the term “ROTC” when he should use NROTC.

ROTC: Wrong in 1968 and Wrong Today

…Only when the assumptions of American foreign policy are fundamentally altered should the military have a place on our campus.

This concluding sentence shows the logic from which the article (and, in a general sense, much of the antiwar left’s worldview)  seems to flow:

NROTC=U.S. Military=various atrocities=American foreign policy=Bad.

Columbia=Good=Doler of Reward/Punishment on that basis.

Columbia+NROTC=Columbia’s support of Bad.

The main problems with this logic are:

  1. NROTC does not equal the U.S. military, which does not equal American foreign policy, etc.
  2. Columbia is not the Doler of Reward/Punishment. Disallowing NROTC to avoid “rewarding” the military for the acts Lyubarsky mentions (many of which, as pointed out by commenters on the Spectator website, are the CIA’s doing) is akin to the Bush Administration refusing to “reward” Syria and Iran with diplomatic conversation.

Lyubarsky seems to believe that Columbia is a place to subvert U.S. foreign policy (which I say would lead to ideological bias)  rather than a neutral marketplace of ideas.  While NROTC has its own problems to deal with, its presence at CU would broaden (although probably not deepen, if my own military experience means anything) that marketplace.

If you don’t like what they’re selling, move on.  There’s no reason for an Ivy League school to hide from what they represent.  I’m not committing 40,000 taxpayer dollars a year (my school bills being paid by the VA) to learn only from those institutions the antiwar left feels comfortable with.

In the meantime, wars and other unpleasantries will continue irrespective of which universities allow ROTC/NROTC/AFROTC.

Guess Who’s Back

I’m going to start actually using this blog, I think.  I’ve been using my Facebook as a sort of blog in the Tom Barnett style for a couple months now.  Will probably come across better in a format for which it is designed.

I envision this blog evolving as I learn more about:

  1. Writing
  2. The subjects on which I’ll be posting
  3. Crafting a successful blog

Stand by for the badassery.

Hammers Can’t Fix Computers OR How We Lost In Iraq

Hammers Can’t Fix Computers

March 20, 2007

Hi. My name is Jason, and I am veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps infantry. I served three tours in the Iraq occupation, and I have something important to tell you. You see, there are a lot of members of Iraq Veterans Against the War who speak out on the immorality of the occupation. Tons. While I agree with them that the occupation is immoral and unjustified, I don’t think that you are all that moved by hearing it. Don’t get me wrong; I’m not implying that you, the reader, are a bad or uncaring person. It’s just that lots of things in this world are immoral, and for most of us they all blend together after a while. What I want to tell you about the occupation of Iraq is something else entirely: Whether or not we are justified in occupying Iraq is irrelevant at a certain level, because we stand no chance against our enemy there, and every life lost fighting them is in vain.

As I left the Marine Corps last May, I wanted to be a scholar of military theory. I wanted to write academic articles in a snooty tone to like-minded professionals. Recently though, I’ve come to a realization: Writing for an audience that totally agrees with you and has the same level of understanding that you do is a waste of time. First of all, there’s not likely to be a huge market for it. Second, it doesn’t end wars. The reason is that the mainstream, the people with the real power to influence change in America, never get the message. That is why I want to tell you, America, the truth about war as we know it.

I intend this article to be user-friendly. If I don’t present my ideas clearly and interestingly, my energy is wasted. That is why I plead with you to let me know if something I write here seems unclear or confusing. As I will explain in greater detail, insulating oneself from constructive criticism only leads to failure. I can be reached at jasonlemieux@ivaw.org.

First, you need to understand that our military is designed to defeat another world power like the Soviet Union. The American way of war is what military scholars refer to as Second Generation or Attrition Warfare (2GW). Hereafter, I will refer to proponents of this style of war as attritionists. The idea in 2GW is to defeat other state militaries by killing the enemy and destroying their equipment. No thought is given to deceiving the enemy or undermining their will to fight, just to killing them with the most powerful weapons available. America loves to loudly proclaim that we have the best military in the history of the world, but it’s just not true. Our training is limited to a very specific set of methods, which are to be practiced without consideration to the enemy situation. Any attempt at introducing new methods is squashed. There are many reasons why, some of which will forever remain a mystery. Let’s look at a couple of the ones we do know.

One reason is the plague that is the military-industrial complex. The methods we use depend on superexpensive technology produced by the defense industry. The defense industry’s lobbyists ensure that Congress buys their equipment, which we are then forced to tailor our methods around. In the Department of Defense (DOD), generals get promoted by maintaining the status quo, which amounts to forcing these methods upon their troops. If they are particularly good at it, they can look forward to a sweet deal from a defense company when they retire.Another reason is that we have done so well in past wars (or so we are told) that our pride doesn’t allow us to admit there are things of which we are incapable. We think that because we’re “the greatest military in the world” that we already have all the answers. For example, one day I tried suggesting to my lieutenant that our platoon try a tactic used by the German Stosstruppen in WWII. He was in the middle of a conversation about which Harley-Davidson motorcycle was the best. He paused long enough to laugh at me, saying “Germany lost the war. Why would we use their tactics, Lemieux?”

“True,” I responded, “Germany did lose the war, but mostly because they ran out of soldiers and equipment first. That doesn’t mean their squads hadn’t figured something out that was working until our superior numbers overwhelmed them.”He didn’t seem interested in my response, and was satisfied to go back to his conversation about motorcycles. His attitude is typical of Marines and soldiers of all ranks. Now that we’ve exposed the truth about the DOD, let’s look at how this truth plays out in Iraq.

The war in Iraq is what’s known among scholars as a Fourth Generation War (4GW). 4GW is war in which a state military, like ours, fights a non-state enemy, like the Iraqi resistance. It’s not just a guerrilla war because state militaries can use guerrilla warfare too. We fight the 4GW enemy in Iraq in a couple of ways, and none of them is at all effective. One tactic we use is combat patrols. What these boil down to is four to eight Humvees driving around, looking for enemy activity. The problem is that there isn’t any way to spot enemy activity, especially from inside an armored Humvee. The main weapon of the resistance is the roadside bomb. Planting roadside bombs takes only a minute or two and can be easily concealed with normal activity you’d expect to see happening in a city, like dumping out the trash or digging a new sewer line. Once the bomb is in place, the bomber can detonate it from any building up to a mile away. The result is that a bunch of guys ride around in loud trucks with machine guns until a roadside bomb hits them, then they evacuate the wounded.

To understand the inward focus and zero-defect mentality of our military, consider the following: When a small-unit (30 soldiers or less) commander debriefs his soldiers after a roadside bomb attacks their patrol, he stands in front of them and says things like “you guys were on the ball getting that medevac called in” or “you did a good job of posting security quickly” instead of saying “I admit that I made us an easy target for our enemy. I guess driving four loud diesel trucks in single file down a main thoroughfare in broad daylight was not the best patrolling technique.” Our 2GW method of fighting is powerless to stop the attacks, because we can’t kill the enemy. In the course of three combat tours, my unit was attacked by hundreds of roadside bombs. You can count on one hand the total number of times we found the guy that attacked us.

Some people, however, think that there is more they can do. They have this idea because they are products of a military that has been content in the last 90 years to defeat other militaries solely by killing. They have the idea that if only we could kill more insurgents or their leaders, we’d defeat them. They cannot understand that killing only makes their enemy stronger. If you kill an insurgent leader, you just turn him into a martyr. In Iraqi society, killing a leader isn’t considered a disaster; it’s motivation to continue fighting. First of all, that we killed him just proves to them that we are the bad guys who deserve to be destroyed. Second, martyrdom is considered an honor, and the martyr is understood to be experiencing a better existence in heaven because of the fact that he was killed fighting for his cause. He’s actually thought to be better off now that he’s dead. Ideas like this influence the landscape of war. They’re also ignored by servicemen who are only interested in killing bodies and then counting them.

The attritionist crowd also thinks that if we just corner enemy forces and then systematically destroy them all, we’ll win. They have the idea that if the enemy isn’t stupid enough to play by our rules, we have some way to force these rules upon him. Take for instance, the words of one misguided Marine corporal in an online forum:

“The Insurgency will not abide by the rules we set so we must adapt to their tactics…they want to use fear and guerille [sic] tactics, you fight that by escalating your aggression, instituting a curfew, and most of all ENFORCE those rules. You dont [sic] capture a bad guy….asked [sic] him to be nice and let him go….LIKE THE POLITICIANS DID TO AL-SADR. My Marine unit as well as Army Bn’s had him and his militia surrounded. We had 2 Iraq Army Bn’s ready to close w/ and destroy a hostile enemy yet politics allowed him to sign a peace treaty, move his troops to Baghdad and he’s killing service members again.”

“Close with and destroy” is a 2GW term straight out of WWI. That this Marine used it to describe how he thinks Iraq should be won is further evidence of our inability to learn new methods. Marines like this one don’t understand that enemy forces in Iraq only get cornered when they want to, because all they have to do to escape is put down their weapons and walk away. We have no way to tell who’s been shooting at us and who hasn’t. The resistance doesn’t even have to use guns, because roadside bombs work just fine anyway. Furthermore, he doesn’t understand that the “politicians” let Al-Sadr go (trust me, he probably would have slipped through our fingers anyway) because otherwise his death or capture would have been the reason for his entire militia to fight to the death, killing many more service members than they have since. The inevitable carnage also would have made America look worse to the world than it already does, alienating the few allies we have left and placing more burden on us in the long run. Al-Sadr did what every good commander should do; he put his enemy (us) in a lose-lose situation. Even if the militia wasn’t moved to join Al-Sadr in martyrdom, his death would still be meaningless. One of the main characteristics of 4GW groups like his is that they have an infinite number of people ready, willing and able to assume command in the event that their leader is killed.

Most importantly, the attritionists don’t understand that in our situation, killing just creates more enemies. Let me repeat myself: Killing just creates more enemies. Ahh, I can hear the derogatory comments now: “typical liberal peacenik talk.” Well, to my conservative friends out there: I’m sorry (not really) to break it to you, but the majority of 4GW theorists are retired mid and high-level officers or civilians closely tied to the U.S., British and Israeli(!) militaries. They’re hardly a bunch of Birkenstock-wearing Volkswagen jockeys. The unavoidable fact is that in 4GW, winning the battle often means losing the war. What I mean is that if you kill one person for any reason, his entire tribe is considered justified in getting revenge by killing everyone in your tribe. Since our military doesn’t have identifiable tribes, every soldier becomes a justified target. Any warfighting philosophy that depends on killing is a sure way to failure in Iraq.

Quick example: An intelligence report I read explained how a member of the local police force (the report is classified, so I won’t mention the city), whose tribe was pro-American, was killed one day in a crossfire between resistance fighters and a U.S. Army unit. His family was well aware that his death was a complete accident. The same day that he died, two of his brothers and one of his cousins joined the resistance. In the accidental death of one Iraqi citizen that was on our side, we instantly turned three of his relatives to our enemy’s side. In the months that followed, I read version after version of the same story. When X is killed or captured by American forces, W, Y and Z all make America their sworn enemy on the same day. Winning by killing is a mathematical impossibility. The “we’re being forced to fight with our hands tied behind our backs” crowd complains until they’re blue in the face that if all these pesky rules of engagement were lifted and “politics” were ignored so they could fight their glorious war, they could finally wipe their enemy off the face of the earth. In order to make this argument, they continually ignore the fact that killing creates more enemies, even when it’s presented to them as plain as day.

Another element of 4GW that’s impossible for us to overcome is the complexity of what we are calling our enemy. I say “what we are calling” because many of them are our own creation, and if we hadn’t invaded in the first place they wouldn’t exist for us to deal with (a real blow to the “fight them there instead of here” argument). Most of the time, the insurgent groups are presented to us as the Sunnis and the Shi’ites, who are in opposition to each other. This is a gross oversimplification. The ‘enemy’ is a vast array of groups who are fighting for different reasons. There are groups that technically fall under the category of Sunni or Shi’ite, but they’re not all fighting to advance their interpretation of Islam. Other motivations include:

 · Money – Businessmen attack their competitors. Also, teenagers are paid to plant roadside bombs. They’re not doing it because they hate Americans; they’re doing it because their mothers and little sisters are starving.

· Politics – In both the Sunni and Shi’ite camps, many political parties in Parliament have an active military wing that attacks members of the other parties.

· Organized crime – The resistance has tapped into the crime networks that existed while Saddam was in power. These guys have absolutely no political or religious loyalty at all; they fight for the highest bidder.

· Tribal honor – Now that Saddam and his enforcement of order are gone, tribes are free to go to war with one another over any little breach of honor. If you insult someone in another tribe, his whole extended family tries to kill everyone in your family.

The different factions are constantly shifting their alliances and fighting each other; the only thing they seem to agree on is that our troops should die. Once you understand the complexity of the actors and motivations involved in this war, it’s obvious that there’s no way to legitimate victory. Who could we ever negotiate peace with? At the end of what we commonly know as war, even the most hated enemies come together to negotiate the terms of surrender. We can’t cram every tribal leader, crime boss, political leader, businessman, religious leader and charismatic guy with money in Iraq into one room to negotiate. Even if we could, they’re all fighting for different reasons. Whatever solution satisfied one group would just alienate another. Since our military is designed to kill and destroy, expecting it to fix this incredibly complex social problem is like having a problem with your personal computer and expecting to fix it by smashing it with a ball peen hammer: “It isn’t fixed yet. Smash harder!”

The 2GW mindset of our military turns every Iraq deployment into one long, pathetic, tragic joke. I could go on and on about how completely pointless it is to have our 18-year old sons and daughters dying every day in Iraq and how the war was lost before it even started, but I think you’ll be better served if I stop here for now. In the rest of this series of articles, I’ll explain some concepts that are extremely important for the American public to know when their countrymen are dying overseas.